Nick's Picks: Colonial Downs picks March 14, 2025 * The Racing Biz

Nick’s Picks: Colonial Downs picks March 14, 2025

Nick Hahn
March 14, 2025

He’s probably the only public handicapper who’s ‘capped every race at Colonial Downs since Day One, and he’s back for more in 2025: Nick’s Picks returns with picks and analysis for Colonial Downs’s first-ever March meet, featuring the Virginia Derby, now a Kentucky Derby points race.

DATE/POST TIME: March 13, 2025/12:35 p.m.
RACES: 8
CARRYOVERS: Pick 6, $2,103

RACE 1

The opener features sprinting Virginia-restricted maiden claimers with double digits losses last time out except for the first timer.

3. Knockanara	Big Lick Farm’s runner got a poor start at the break last September at Colonial, his first ever start. With class runs much better today.
5. Italiano Kid	First timers may not know how to win, but also don’t know how to lose. Good opportunity to earn a check here.
1. El Junior	Jevian Toledo knows how to deliver winners at Colonial Downs, that with a class drop makes this sophomore viable.

RACE 2

Three-year-old fillies starting to run at more distance on the dirt include many trainers that know Colonial’s winner’s circle well.

1. Set Ablaze	On the 20th annniversary of Scrappy T, why not back a Bailes class dropper on the dirt adding blinkers?
4. Dancing Dakotah	Only one in this group that has seen more than 6 1/2 furlongs on the dirt and is improving.
5. Lord’s Lady	Ferris Allen’s first-time starter is well-bred for the dirt, even at 6 1/2 furlongs.

RACE 3

The starting gate location doesn’t move for these three-year-old maiden claimers, where how the outer horses turn has a major impact.

4. Fly Pelican	Aguirre moved up his gelding and caught an off-track. Drops down and returns Boyce.
6. Nancie’s Boy	Virginia’s trainer of the year took a little extra time to return her gelding back to the track. Adds the X-man.
5. City Panda	Less than three lengths behind the winner in her last start is promising for City of Light gelding.

RACE 4

Virginia-restricted maiden female claimers sprint, each of whom raced last at a different track.

5. Yourgloriousdaylis	If the transition to dirt has any success, would have enough speed and kick to win here.
3. Moon Rox	Might not notice the extra furlong when on a gradual turn and has two level starts at Charles Town.
7. Lost River	Three-year-old filly has two turf starts at Colonial Downs but hasn’t seen a race since.

RACE 5

First race to start from the chute going a mile with female maidens, many capable finishers.

7. Champagne Brunch	Saffie Joseph, Jr. has a filly that seems to be close or on the lead in every race. Mile should be best.
3. Reply	Not a big reach to this first-time starter considering the breeding, connections and mornings.
5. Passage East	McMahon’s filly is four-for-four for second, various tracks and conditions.

RACE 6

STELLAR WIND: For Binnie to win again here, she may need to alter her running style. Pure Lure cross-entry significant.

10. Binnie	Should be able to rate if needed, having done so on the Colonial turf last summer. Wins on varying surfaces and tracks.
6. Mary Q	Better when the going stays fast and when Paco is aboard
2. Pure Lure	Hard to leave out of your exotics vertical or horizonal. Always runs well.

NICK’S NOTES

Picks continue below.
Thursday’s first race was run for purse money only — no wagering — which surely impacted the day’s handle of $847,634
Jockey Paco Lopez had a huge day, winning four of the day’s eight races
Favorites went 0-for-7 on the day
Trainer Anthony Farrior won a pair of races

RACE 7

BOSTON: Features the return of Book’em Danno, who was certified here but hasn’t yet raced, to Virginia

6. Book’em Danno	Shortens back up to seven furlongs for his four year old debut, after winning a Grade I as a three-year-old and running second to Forever Young in Saudi Arabia.
2. Celtic Contender	With Carrasco, capabile of challenging the favorite especially at a distance at which he consistently wins.
3. Showstopper Copper	Nuesch always lurks when underrated. Takes over training in Virginia with one capable of big performances.

RACE 8

Virginia-restricted filly non-winners of other than drew a ten-horse field, many credible winners here.

6. Winfinity	Can’t turn my back on my 11-1 Keswick Stable stakes selection. Only one here with a win at Colonial.
3. Double Airo	Bailes has a filly with a nice win this year that will be trouble when she finds the lead.
8. Noquestionaboutit	Larry Johnson’s homebred returns for 2025 after a nice win last fall.